
via DH
Excerpts, links, commentary and miscellaneous ramblings from an Englishman in Tokyo, cleverly disguised as a responsible adult.
Wed Apr 28 Ride from Knotty on Vimeo.

The United States investor/consumer is a child spoiled rotten to the core. Real leadership in the United States would be pulling that child aside in the middle of the supermarket and pointing out that not only will no candy be forthcoming, but that there is a substantial body of homework to be done upon returning home and that no, there will be no time in front of the high definition television for awhile. Instead, it seems clear that this child's silence will be purchased with handfuls of candy dumped into the shopping cart with the silent prayer that no screaming will entail until November 2012, when the shopping cart is safely at checkout. The real question is how anyone plans to pay for the dental bills."
Human Sacrifice At The Altar Of The Cult Of Buoyancy - finemrespice

What’s perplexing about this argument is that it seems to assume that investors are averting their eyes from all that’s wrong with the current economy, and have driven stock prices up to unusually high levels. But they haven’t. The S. & P. 500 is now about ten points lower than it was in early February, and it’s about five per cent below where it was when the year started. That doesn’t mean current prices are justified. But it does mean that stock prices are not, as one recent analyst suggested, “in the stratosphere.”
Of course, if you believe that stocks were significantly overvalued back in February (or back in December), then you probably believe that they’re still overvalued today. I would argue that there are good reasons to believe that the economy, while still very weak, is much closer to a bottom than it was two months ago, and that the Obama Administration’s management of the crisis—which we could only guess at in January—has been a net plus for the economy (and therefore for the stock market). Yet despite all this, the simple fact is that the stock market has not gone up since February. In fact, for all its ups and downs, after four months of action it’s ended up pretty much where it started. It’s a strange world, indeed, in which that counts as euphoria." "The Stock Market’s Round Trip" - NewYorker
"Barclays says that it has sold iShares - a provider of specialist stock-market funds - for £3bn.In normal times, that would be seen as a deal so bad for the bank that shareholders would be volunteering to throw themselves off Beachy Head.
But Barclays' share price rose more than 12 per cent today.
To state the obvious, these are not normal times, these are credit-crunch times: and, I guess, if a bank can raise capital in any way at all without tapping taxpayers, that's seen as good news." peston
Mr. Cramer, the host of CNBC's Mad Money, recently wrote in a blog that Mr. Roubini is “intoxicated” with his own “prescience and vision” and said Mr. Roubini should realize that things are better since the stock market's recent bottom in early March.
The Standard & Poor's 500 index has rallied 17 per cent since then.
Mr. Roubini said in 2006 that the worst recession in four decades was on its way. He has attracted attention for his gloomy – and accurate – predictions of the U.S. financial market meltdown.
Mr. Roubini said the latest surge is just another bear market rally following the pattern of other rallies after the government intervened. He expects the market will test the previous low because of worse-than-expected macroeconomic news, disappointing earnings and because banks will fail after the stress tests come out.
“Once people get the reality check, than it's going to get ugly again,” Mr. Roubini said.
“He's not a credible analyst. Every time it was a bear market rally he said it was the beginning of a bull and he got it wrong,” Mr. Roubini said in an interview with The Associated Press.
Asked Wednesday if he thinks the market will touch the low again, Mr. Cramer said on CNBC: “I think we are not going to see that level again.”
Mr. Cramer said if the Dow Jones industrial average goes below 7,000 and the S&P hits 650, buyers will come in because there would be a ferocious rally and investors couldn't afford to miss another." source
I'll go with the Doom-meister on this one.


